338.5 / A778L
Armstrong, Jon Scott, 1937-
Long-range forecasting. From crystal ball to computer / Jon Scott Armstrong. -- New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1978. xviii, 612 p. ; 24 cm.
PART I GETTING STARTED. 1 Introduction. 2 The Systems Approach
and Other Good Advice. 3 Implementation. 4 Research Strategies. PART II FORECASTING METHODS. 5 Classifying the Forecasting Methods. 6 Judgmental Methods: the Crystal Ball. 7 Extrapolation Methods. 8 Econometric Methods. 9 Segmentation Methods. 10 Bootstrapping and Other Combined Methods. PART III EVALUATING MODELS. 11 A Framework for Evaluation. 12 Testing Inputs. 13 Testing Outputs. PART IV COMPARING METHODS. 14 Costs and Benefits of the Forecasting Methods. 15 An Evaluation of Accuracy. PART V COMMENCEMENT. 16 Trends in the Use of Forecasting Methods. 17 Research on Forecasting Methods.
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